Nicholas' column for Irish Independent (December 13th 2010)

Created by Jennifer leonard303 3 years ago

MPs at Westminster will be voting this week on whether to allow the chancellor, George Osborne, to go ahead with the emergency loan of £3.25 billion which Britain has agreed to make to Ireland as part of the rescue package.

Although some right-wing Conservatives are deeply opposed to having anything to do with propping up the eurozone, Osborne is sure to get a comfortable majority in favour of handing over the money.

He has, however, had to pledge that there will be no similar bail-outs for other EU economies in trouble and that there is no automatic approval for any further loans to Ireland.

The former prime minister, Gordon Brown, who has just published a book about his starring role in the battle to contain the global banking crisis, said last week that he expects what he called ‘a major crisis’ in the euro area during the first few months of 2011.

He is not alone. There is intense scepticism at Westminster about whether vulnerable economies like Spain can avoid the fate of Greece and Ireland.

But yesterday a much more balanced and plausible view was put forward by another ex-prime minister, John Major. He knows more than most of his colleagues about the realities of power, ambition and competence within the European Union, having suffered humiliation in 1992 when the pound was forced out of the exchange rate mechanism.

Major kept the pound out of the euro because, like Gordon Brown, he did not think the economic efficiency of the ‘southern’ eurozone countries could ever match that of their ‘northern’ competitors, particularly Germany.

However, he now predicts that the ‘mini-IMF’ which has been created to underpin the financing of the eurozone will be enough to ensure that it does not break up. He pointed out that, if necessary, the IMF itself and the US could also provide funds.

But, he said, the price of ensuring the survival of the eurozone will be a long period of slower growth, higher unemployment, higher taxes and lower public spending than most people in Europe would want to see. He could have added that the price of not ensuring its survival might well be even higher.

The Treasury is going to have to borrow the money it will lend Ireland but it still has a pretty good credit rating so it should be able to make a ‘profit’ of at least £100 million a year on the transaction, assuming, of course, that the loan and the interest are eventually paid back.

John Major said yesterday that Britain faces ‘horrendous problems’ with its own economy as it tackles what he called ‘ a wasteland of debt’.

The violent protests against the government’s plans to push up university tuition fees were a stark reminder to the prime minister, David Cameron, of the difficulties he will face over the next year as he tries to get the deficit under control.

The biggest shock for Cameron, however, was the revelation of just how close Prince Charles and Camilla came to being physically injured by the protesters as they tried to drive to the theatre.

The home secretary, Theresa May, will be making an emergency statement to the Commons today,  trying to reassure MPs that immediate action is being taken to improve the security of the royal family.. The police are likely to be allowed to use water cannon against protesters in future and there are going to be numerous prosecutions of those involved.

Security around Cameron and other key ministers will also be stepped up. Ironically, in April 2009, Theresa May was one of the MPs who signed a motion in the Commons commending the leaders of the suffragette movement a century ago. Their protest marches frequently became violent and in 1913, they set fire to the homes of two anti-suffragette MPs.

The deputy prime minister, Nick Clegg, has been making jokes about public demands to bring back capital punishment so that he can be executed for supporting the rise in university fees.

His colleagues admire his gallows humour and resilience but they are furious at the way the Conservatives are allowing him and the Liberal Democrats to become the main targets of the protests against government policy.

It suits Cameron to have Clegg as a lightning conductor for voter anger but support for the Lib Dems has collapsed and the survival of the coalition is now in doubt. The bookmakers, William Hill, yesterday cut their odds against a general election next year from 20/1 to just 4/1.

It’s true that the odds against the coalition surviving till 2015 are even shorter at 13/8 but everything depends on Cameron and Clegg being able to maintain the remarkable strength of their personal and political relationship as the stresses on their MPs intensify.